Texans can make statement with win over Colts
Football Betting Lines
09/10/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Having made the playoffs in eight consecutive seasons, the Indianapolis Colts are a model franchise for other teams to follow. The Houston Texans feel they are on that level, at least offensively.
The top two offenses from a season ago get together this Sunday at Reliant Stadium, as the Colts begin defense of their AFC championship against a Texans club that will carry a four-game winning streak dating back to last year into this matchup.
Led by quarterback Peyton Manning, who captured his fourth MVP award last year, the Colts ripped through the regular season in 2009, winning their first 14 games before dropping a pair of meaningless contests heading into the playoffs. They then won their first two postseason games under first-year head coach Jim Caldwell, knocking off the Baltimore Ravens and New York Jets before falling to the New Orleans Saints in Super Bowl XLIV.
Indianapolis led the title game heading into halftime, but was outscored by New Orleans 25-7 in the second half to fall 31-17. The Colts have been itching to get back on the field ever since.
Indy opens up its season with three of its first four games on the road and draws a potentially tough Week 1 matchup in the Texans, who have their eyes set on knocking off a Colts team that has finished first in the AFC South in six of the past seven seasons.
This contest should feature some fireworks, as the Colts' 282.2 passing yards per game ranked behind only the Texans (290.0) a season ago. Caldwell won't take Houston lightly.
"I would anticipate it is going to be like it always is; a hard-fought battle that is going to take you 59 minutes and possibly 30 seconds to determine who is going to win that game," said Caldwell. "It's a division game, it's a big game, it's a road game for us and it's a big game versus a tough opponent. It is big for both teams."
It might be bigger for the Texans.
Tabbed as a playoff-caliber team last year, Houston suffered a back-breaking four-game slide from Nov. 8-Dec. 6, with all four losses coming against fellow AFC South residents. That led to a 1-5 mark against the division and a 9-7 overall record. Despite the nine victories being a franchise record and ending the season on a four-game win streak, Houston failed to reach the playoffs for the eighth time in its eight seasons as an NFL franchise.
While Houston's offense should have tight end Owen Daniels in the mix for the first time since the budding star suffered a torn ACL in Week 8 of last year, reigning Defensive Rookie of the Year Brian Cushing will serve the first contest of a four-game suspension for violating the league's policy on performance-enhancing drugs.
Cushing said it will be tough to watch his team play without him.
"There's no question about it," the linebacker said after the Texans' final preseason game. "I mean, I'm not even sure I'm going to be able to watch it. You realize how much you love something when it's taken away from you and like I said, I've just got to stay mentally prepared, stay as fresh as I can, and in Week 5 be the best player I can possibly be."
SERIES HISTORY
The Colts are 15-1 all-time against the Texans, with the only loss a 27-24 result at Reliant Stadium in 2006. Indianapolis extended its winning streak in the series to six games with last year's home-and-home sweep, including a 20-17 home win over Houston in Week 9 and a 35-27 victory at Reliant Stadium in Week 12.
Texans head coach Gary Kubiak is 1-7 against the Colts in his career, while Caldwell is 2-0 against both Kubiak and Houston as a head coach.
WHEN THE COLTS HAVE THE BALL
The Colts return essentially the same offense that terrorized defensive backs a year ago and featured four Pro Bowl selections. Manning (4500 passing yards, 33 TD, 16 INT) earned his 10th trip to the Pro Bowl and topped 4,000 yards passing for a fourth straight season, and he remains one of the best at his position. The 34-year-old has the luxury of throwing to a pair of Pro Bowl receivers in wide receiver Reggie Wayne (1264 receiving yards) and tight end Dallas Clark (1106 receiving yards), who both caught 100 balls and 10 touchdown passes a season ago. Manning's other targets aren't too shabby either, as both Austin Collie (60 receptions, 7 TD) and Pierre Garcon (47 receptions, 4 TD) took advantage of an injury to Anthony Gonzalez to post breakout seasons. Garcon is expected to start this game along with Wayne. Joseph Addai enters his fourth season as the starting running back, and his 828 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns paced a ground game that ranked last in the NFL a season ago with an average of 80.9 yards per game. Indy could be without one of its Pro Bowlers from a year ago, as center Jeff Saturday underwent arthroscopic knee surgery in the middle of August and might not be able to suit up for this game. Mike Pollak, owner of 20 career starts at guard, is listed behind Saturday on the depth chart.
Kareem Jackson, welcome to the NFL. Houston's 2010 first-round pick steps into a starting role at cornerback immediately beside second-year pro Glover Quin (68 tackles). Those two figure to face a stiff test in this one, though the Texans hope that the drafting of Jackson 20th overall will help a defense that ranked 18th versus the pass a season ago. Strong safety Bernard Pollard (102 tackles, 4 INT) was a surprise in 2009 and offers support along with starting free safety Eugene Wilson (29 tackles, 2 INT). Cushing posted a monster year, compiling a team-high 133 tackles along with four sacks and four interceptions, and the Texans will miss the strongside linebacker the most of any of their first four games this week. They do still have middle linebacker DeMeco Ryans (123 tackles, 1 sack), perhaps one of the NFL's most underrated players. Ends Mario Williams (43 tackles, 9 sacks) and Antonio Smith (34 tackles, 4.5 sacks) will need to try and pressure Manning, but won't have much time to do so thanks to the quarterback's quick release. Tackles Amobi Okoye (38 tackles) and Shaun Cody (21 tackles) will also need to create a push at the line.
WHEN THE TEXANS HAVE THE BALL
Houston just might be able to match Manning and company punch for punch. The Texans are guided under center by Matt Schaub, a 2010 Pro Bowl selection who threw for an NFL-high 4,770 passing yards with 29 touchdown passes and 15 interceptions last year. His favorite target is fellow Pro Bowler Andre Johnson (101 receptions, 9 TD), who has gone over 100 receptions in three of his last four seasons and accounted for 1,569 receiving yards in 2009. If the Colts focus on shutting down Johnson, Schaub can look towards Daniels, who was headed towards a breakout season with 40 catches and five touchdowns prior to his injury. Kevin Walter (53 receptions, 2 TD) should also see some room on the field as the second wide receiver. Houston's running game was only slightly better than that of Indy's, averaging 92.2 yards per game to rank 30th in the NFL. Fumble problems by Steve Slaton (437 rushing yards, 3 TD) led to the running back losing his starting job last year before ultimately getting hurt, with replacement Arian Foster expected to start in this game. Foster had a good preseason and posted 216 rushing yards with three touchdowns over Houston's final two games of last year. For the first time since the team's inception, Kris Brown will not be kicking field goals for the Texans after he lost a preseason battle with ex-Cardinal Neil Rackers.
The Colts ranked in the middle of the pack last year versus the pass (14th overall), but ends Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis have shined in the past versus Houston. Freeney (24 tackles, 13.5 sacks) has 12 1/2 sacks and three forced fumbles in 14 career games against the Texans, while Mathis (37 tackles, 9.5 sacks) has 10 1/2 sacks and eight forced fumbles in 13 games in this series. That should put Schaub on notice. If the duo can't get to the Houston quarterback, Indianapolis will look to a pair of players returning from injury to lend a hand. Strong safety Bob Sanders missed 10 games in 2008 and all but two last year due to knee and biceps injuries, but hopes to stay healthy this season. Starting corner Kelvin Hayden also missed eight games in 2009 due to injury, but 2009 third-round pick Jerraud Powers shined in his absence and notched 66 tackles with an interception. Indianapolis returns the same starting three at linebacker, as it re-signed middle man Gary Brackett (99 tackles, 1 sack) to play in between right-side starter Clint Session (103 tackles) and Philip Wheeler (61 tackles).
FANTASY FOCUS
Both the Texans and Colts are full of fantasy-worthy starters. For the Colts, Manning, Wayne and Clark are all must-starts, and both receivers should get a fair number of looks from Manning, one of the top-five fantasy QB's. Schaub could be right behind Manning in production, and both Johnson and Daniels need to be in starting lineups. Foster has looked good so far this year and could be one of 2010's biggest surprises, while Addai owners will get their first look at how many carries handcuff Donald Brown is going to steal from the starter. Deeper leagues should also give No. 2 wideouts Garcon and Walter looks. Both defenses should be avoided given the number of offensive playmakers on the field, while Colts kicker Adam Vinatieri and counterpart Rackers should get plenty of chances to put the ball between the uprights.
OVERALL ANALYSIS
In what could be the highest-scoring game in Week 1, this matchup could instead come down to which defense is able to push back the hardest. That edge goes to the Colts, who have more experience over a Texans club that will really miss Cushing. While Houston is trying to take the next step forward as a franchise, Indianapolis is all business and knows what is at stake, even in the opening week. Manning won't let his team get off to a slow start. Ultimately, the Colts' seasoning will win out over the Texans' up-and-coming talent. Houston's lone franchise win over Indianapolis did come at Reliant Stadium, but win No. 2 won't go down this Sunday.
Sportsbook Betting Lines Predicted Outcome: Colts 31, Texans 24
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MySportsbook.com : Fortune Favors Favorites in March Madness betting?
Just like Day 1 of the “Sweet 16”, Friday’s games are chock full of some of the nation’s elite. Unlike Thursday’s games, there is a little bit more of a “Cinderella” feel as #7 seed UNLV and #6 seed Vanderbilt will attempt to move on to the Elite Eight. With powerhouses Florida, UNC and Georgetown looking to continue their momentum against lesser known teams, it isn’t surprising that once again the “betting public” is backing most of the favorites. As the early coin rolls in, 56% of Sportsbook.com bettors prefer Georgetown (-7.5) as they take on Vanderbilt; 84% of the early money is backing Oregon (-3) as they square off against UNLV; and a slight majority (52%) of the early cash is on Florida (-10.5) against Butler as the Gators continue their quest for another National Title. The only favorite the public don’t seem confident in is UNC, as 59% of the cash is backing the underdog Trojans (+8).
Midwest
#1 Florida vs. #5 Butler
The defending National Champs have been on a mission since last April. Joakim Noah and Al Horford turned down millions of dollars for one reason, to REPEAT. After a late season hiccup which saw them lose three out of four, the Gators have won six straight by an average of 20.3 points. More importantly, they covered in five of those six games. Behind their stymie defense that yields only 56.9 PPG, Butler has been a very pleasant surprise this season. As their 20-11 ATS record will indicate, “surprise teams” like Butler are often good bets for gamblers. Playing in an average conference, Butler wasn’t and underdog too often but when they were, they covered (6-0 ATS). Butler’s defense will have its hands full against a Gators offense which averages 80.1 PPG on an amazing 52.9% shooting from the field. With Florida’s tournament experience over the last few years, it isn’t surprising that they are 5-1 ATS this season, 20-4 ATS over the last three seasons and 38-20 since 1997 in tournament action.
#3 Oregon vs. #7 UNLV
As a #7 seed, UNLV is the closest thing to a “Cinderella” we have this year. If you bet on UNLV this season with any regularity, you most likely cashed in. Behind their guard oriented attack, the Rebels are an impressive 20-11 ATS this season. As an underdog they covered in 8 out of their ten games which isn’t surprising since they are 52-30 ATS as a ‘dog since 1997. The Rebels have been a consistent cover during the month of March as well. This March they are 6-0 ATS, 11-3 ATS over the last three seasons and 24-11 since 1997. Their impressive ATS trends don’t end there; versus teams with a winning record they are 15-6 ATS this season and 41-21 over the last three seasons. Although Oregon hasn’t been as generous to gamblers as UNLV this season, they have been covering consistently as of late. There is no question that they are playing their best ball of the season having won their last 8 straight up (SU) by an average of 14.5 points. Not surprising they covered in 7 of those games. It is interesting to note how similar these teams are in regards to scoring and scoring defense. UNLV averages 75 PPG while giving up 66.5 PPG and Oregon scores 75.8 PPG while yielding 65.5 PPG.
East
#6 Vanderbilt vs. #2 Georgetown
“Hoya Paranoia” is officially back! After a decent start, Georgetown has rolled through the second half of the season. Over their last 18 games, they are 17-1 SU. They have definitely improved ATS as the season has progressed as well. After opening the season 1-4-1 ATS, the Hoyas have covered 78.3% of their games. With their great interior play of Jeff Green and Roy Hibbert, the Hoyas as a team shoot 50.5% from the field. Like the Georgetown teams from years ago, they also excel on defense. Hoya opponents averaged only 56.8 PPG on 38.2% shooting from the field and an extremely low 30.4% from beyond the arc. The last stat could be of some concern to Vanderbilt considering they shoot 37.7% from long-range. Ranking second to last in the SEC in rebounding margin, Vanderbilt will have its work cut out for them against the Hoya trees. As far as covering is concerned, Vanderbilt has been almost a “sure thing” (7-1 ATS) versus good defensive teams that allow less than 64 PPG.
#1 UNC vs. # 5 USC
The Tar Heels are as talented and as deep as any team in the country. Going ten deep and chock full of HS All-Americans, UNC averages 86.1 PPG and scored 100+ seven times. Led by All-American forward, Tyler Hansbrough (18.6 PPG 7.9 RPG) UNC has a very balanced attack which can kill you on the inside as well as on the perimeter. UNC only real concern is their youth as eight of their rotation players are either sophomores or freshmen. UNC was a reliable cover this season going 20-13 ATS. An intriguing covering trend for the Tar Heels in recent years has been how they fared after non-conference games. This season they are 11-3 ATS after non-conference games and over the last three seasons they are 31-13 ATS. USC is also a pretty deep team which is loaded with swingman types. An match-up to keep an eye on will be freshman forward Taj Gibson (12.1 PPG, 8.6 RPG) as he squares off against the AA Hansbrough. USC has been a covering machine this season achieving a 21-10 record ATS. They have thrived in the underdog role, having covered 10 out of 12. When playing a team with a winning record, the Trojans are an incredible 20-6 ATS. Keep in mind, USC dedicated their season to former star to Ryan Francis who passed away before the season so as they get closer to the ultimate goal, emotion could definitely be on their side.
With Friday -105 juice on Basketball betting, MySportsbook.com is the place to bet on all of the “March Madness” action. Don’t forget to monitor who the public is backing at this sportsbook “Betting Trends”. By doing so, you have the best chance of predicting a possible line change, thus getting the best value for your wager.
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